International Conflicts, Energy, and Consumption: the effects of the crisis on markets and Switzerland

International crises are having an increasingly direct influence on the energy sector, with consequences reflected in both consumer behaviour and the balance of European electricity supplies. In two recent interviews, Léna Pellandini-Simányi, Associate Professor of Marketing at USI Institute of Marketing and Communication Management (IMCA), and Alessandra Motz, researcher at USI Institute for Economic Research (IRE) and head of energy analysis for the Public Finance and Energy Observatory (O-FPE), analysed some of the key economic and social implications of current tensions in the Middle East.

The war in Iran and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz are increasingly affecting consumer purchasing decisions, particularly in the automotive sector. In an interview published in Corriere del Ticino on the evolution of the electric car market, Professor Léna Pellandini-Simányi observed how rising fuel prices and concerns over energy security have helped revitalise demand for electric vehicles following a period of slowdown.

According to Pellandini-Simányi, crises influence consumption through various psychological and economic mechanisms. "If fuel prices rise, or if people expect them to rise, electric cars become more attractive," the USI expert explains, highlighting how, in times of uncertainty, aspects such as energy efficiency and autonomy carry greater weight in purchasing decisions. Alongside economic factors, a need for security has emerged, which can translate into a search for greater individual self-sufficiency and an interest in technologies perceived as less dependent on global geopolitical dynamics.

The Professor also highlights the central role of public debate and the media in shaping consumer expectations. "People rely on media forecasts and public debate to hypothesise the most likely scenario and act accordingly," she observes, explaining how collective expectations can further fuel the spread of new technologies, encouraging investment in charging networks and industrial innovation.

In parallel, the crisis in the Middle East is generating new concerns regarding Swiss electricity supplies. Interviewed on the TeleTicino programme Ticinonews Sera, researcher Alessandra Motz explained how Switzerland depends partly on energy imports from neighbouring countries, especially during the winter. "As Switzerland is a country that imports during the winter, it is more closely linked to the surrounding markets," Motz stated, noting that Germany and Italy make extensive use of natural gas to produce electricity. In this context, any difficulties in the gas market are quickly reflected in Swiss prices and, in more critical scenarios, could lead to tensions regarding available quantities.

Motz also drew attention to European gas storage, which is fundamental for navigating the winter season. "If gas is scarce during the summer or is particularly expensive, filling storage facilities can become more difficult in terms of the volumes secured," Motz explains, emphasising that the coming winter remains a particularly delicate period for the European energy system. While acknowledging the framework of international volatility and uncertainty, Motz nevertheless advises against alarmism. "I am confident that we will not reach a point where we cannot turn on a light bulb in winter," the USI expert concludes, adding that extreme scenarios of electricity rationing currently represent a "reasonably low" probability.